When I was reporting
a story on domestic drones earlier this year, I had a long interview with
Chris Anderson, the former editor of
Wired who now runs
DIY Drones. We talked quite a bit about the possibility of drone delivery services, but I didn't spend much time on the concept in my piece. It seemed too far-fetched.
Now, Jeff Bezos says Amazon could be delivering packages by drone in four or five years. Really? Not if Chris Anderson is correct. When I asked Anderson about drone delivery during our January interview, he replied:
Not in my lifetime. People love that concept of delivery,
but let’s just think it through. Try to imagine a harder technical and
regulatory—to say nothing of liability—problem than navigating an urban
landscape at street-level, where you’ve got telephone lines, and trees, and birds, and construction. Millions of people underneath you, involving a multi-copter
rather than a plane—because, remember, it’s got to be precisely located... This is an artificial intelligence challenge like you can’t
even imagine, and it’s a regulatory challenge like nobody wants to think about.
So, we could deliver you a taco to your apartment today, at about, like, a
meter per second maximum. Really slowly, and with about $100,000 worth of LIDAR
gear on board. And it might work, sometimes. And it would take like an hour
each way. Of course, we’d have to recharge the batteries mid-way. But maybe we
could almost imagine doing it, technically. But, can you imagine what regulator
is going to let that happen? There’s no bigger liability area than robotic
delivery in cities.
Anderson continued:
I think that the first place drones are going to be used is
away from people, for obvious reasons. Common-sense safety reasons, and also
regulatory reasons. And I think any delivery service that’s trying to deliver
things to people fundamentally comes in conflict with the FAA’s priorities,
which are the safety of our citizens. I just think it’s got a really high
regulatory barrier… The closer you are to people, the harder it is to navigate
safely. You’re dealing with obstructions. You’re often in GPS-denied areas because
of high-rises. You’re around trees, and telephone wires, and birds, and god
knows what—it’s actually hard to do that stuff… But the fantasy of food
delivery in a city, if you think about it for like two seconds, just imagine
what that would take in terms of the path-finding, and the obstacle avoidance, and the safety considerations—and where would you land? They’re basically
flying lawnmowers, right? Because the ones that are going to land on the spot
are copters, not planes. Where are they going to land? And how do you know
there’s nobody there? And what if you landed on a kid?
I assume Amazon is asking these questions. Maybe the company has already answered them, but if so it hasn't explained how. I did notice, however, that in the video demonstrating Amazon's drone delivery capability, father and son stay behind a closed door while the drone delivers its package.
Wise move. Here's a picture I took of drone-blade injuries to a contestant at the 2012 International Aerial Robotics Competition: