Now, Jeff Bezos says Amazon could be delivering packages by drone in four or five years. Really? Not if Chris Anderson is correct. When I asked Anderson about drone delivery during our January interview, he replied:
Not in my lifetime. People love that concept of delivery, but let’s just think it through. Try to imagine a harder technical and regulatory—to say nothing of liability—problem than navigating an urban landscape at street-level, where you’ve got telephone lines, and trees, and birds, and construction. Millions of people underneath you, involving a multi-copter rather than a plane—because, remember, it’s got to be precisely located... This is an artificial intelligence challenge like you can’t even imagine, and it’s a regulatory challenge like nobody wants to think about. So, we could deliver you a taco to your apartment today, at about, like, a meter per second maximum. Really slowly, and with about $100,000 worth of LIDAR gear on board. And it might work, sometimes. And it would take like an hour each way. Of course, we’d have to recharge the batteries mid-way. But maybe we could almost imagine doing it, technically. But, can you imagine what regulator is going to let that happen? There’s no bigger liability area than robotic delivery in cities.Anderson continued:
I think that the first place drones are going to be used is away from people, for obvious reasons. Common-sense safety reasons, and also regulatory reasons. And I think any delivery service that’s trying to deliver things to people fundamentally comes in conflict with the FAA’s priorities, which are the safety of our citizens. I just think it’s got a really high regulatory barrier… The closer you are to people, the harder it is to navigate safely. You’re dealing with obstructions. You’re often in GPS-denied areas because of high-rises. You’re around trees, and telephone wires, and birds, and god knows what—it’s actually hard to do that stuff… But the fantasy of food delivery in a city, if you think about it for like two seconds, just imagine what that would take in terms of the path-finding, and the obstacle avoidance, and the safety considerations—and where would you land? They’re basically flying lawnmowers, right? Because the ones that are going to land on the spot are copters, not planes. Where are they going to land? And how do you know there’s nobody there? And what if you landed on a kid?







